UK TORIES FEND OFF CHALLENGES BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT

Opinion: It was with a strong sense of déjà vu that I watched Rishi Sunak announce that if re-elected, he would introduce compulsory national service for all 18-year-olds. I remember an equally embattled former National Party Prime Minister Jenny Shipley making the same outlandish promise during the 1999 election campaign.

And beyond just this policy, I think there are other parallels to be drawn between the 1999 New Zealand election and the one happening right now in the UK. In 1999, National was going into the election as the underdog. After a decade in power, the public were wanting change. Shipley, like Sunak, had become leader midway through the term (in Shipley’s case ousting Jim Bolger). Shipley, like Sunak, had a fleeting dalliance with the voting public that quickly soured. Shipley, like Sunak, was facing electoral oblivion at the polls. 

The threat to Sunak’s party comes not only from the left, but a populist and increasingly popular political rival on the right. In Shipley’s case, the threat on the right was Richard Prebble’s Act Party, which benefited from National’s dysfunctional coalition with NZ First from 1996 to 1998. In the UK, Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is posing a significant threat to the UK Conservatives by appealing to the Tory base.

Immigration, not conscription, is how Farage is making real gains in this election. A point highlighted by his recent discomfort with three officials saying the quiet – and bluntly racist – part far too loudly. On the doorstep, immigration is raised constantly while national service never comes up. Cutting immigration was a key Conservative Party manifesto commitment in the past four elections. Yet in government it did the exact opposite. Despite the promises and rhetoric, net migration for 2023 was 600,000, a record high. The Brexit campaign promised that leaving the EU would reduce net migration and take back control of the border. For people who voted Conservative in 2019 to ‘get Brexit done’, voting for Sunak is not an option in 2024.

With increasing security threats due to Russia invading Ukraine, or the escalating conflict in Gaza, conscripting 18-year-old Billy from Scunthorpe into the army is not a serious response.

Polling consistently shows that British voters think net migration is too high. Public opinion on this is out of step with the Westminster bubble. One example of the issue is the care sector, where rather than invest in training and improving pay, the government has relied on migration. The chickens have now come home to roost for the Conservatives as much of their base now flock to Farage. For the Tories, the Reform Party poses an existential threat. In the short term this plays to Labour; yet in government, the disconnect between the views of Labour’s base and public opinion on immigration will require careful navigation.

In response to all this, the national service policy is a desperate attempt to win back small ‘c’ conservatives given issues like immigration the Tories’ record in office is driving voters away.

National service is not something even the military supports. With increasing security threats due to Russia invading Ukraine, or the escalating conflict in Gaza, conscripting 18-year-old Billy from Scunthorpe into the army is not a serious response. After 14 years of soaring youth knife crime due to closing youth centres, chronic underfunding of education programmes, inadequate mental health and school funding to help students navigate the impact of Covid on their lives and education, this policy is not the right one, and is not a serious battle plan for Britain’s youth. National service is a poor attempt to sure up support on the right.

Like Shipley back in 1999, Sunak knows he will never have to implement this policy. For Sunak, Partygate, Liz Truss’ mini-budget, and now his own ineffective leadership have repelled voters.

In Shipley’s case, the death knell was being part of a coalition her predecessor built with NZ First only to have the carpet pulled out from under her (in my opinion quite rightly) by Winston Peters over privatisation. As they say, the more things change …

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2024-07-02T17:01:43Z dg43tfdfdgfd